Despite Bitcoin (BTC) nearing its all-time high, analysts say Q3 might bring underperformance for the top crypto asset — with Ethereum (ETH) poised to benefit instead.
📉 Retail Optimism May Delay Bitcoin’s Breakout
According to Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan, excessive retail optimism around a new Bitcoin all-time high could ironically hold BTC back in the short term.
“Markets often move opposite to retail’s expectations,” Quinlivan told Cointelegraph. “We aren’t quite ready for another bullish surge yet.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $109,679, just 2.1% below its all-time high of $111,970 reached on May 22. Despite several “close calls,” traders are growing impatient — a factor that might finally shake out excessive optimism and prepare BTC for a breakout.
📊 Q3 Historically Bitcoin’s Weakest Quarter
Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, pointed out that the third quarter has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest. Since 2013, Q3 has averaged a -6.03% return, while Q4 often bounces back with +85.42% average returns, according to CoinGlass.
Dawson added that macro uncertainty and the Fed’s firm stance on interest rates could dampen investor appetite for high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
“Despite political pressure for rate cuts, the Fed seems poised to keep interest rates steady,” Dawson noted.
📈 Ethereum Gathers Momentum as Sentiment Shifts
While Bitcoin faces seasonal headwinds, Ethereum is seeing renewed optimism, Quinlivan said.
ETH has rebounded from a low of $1,472 in April to nearly $2,793, catching up after months of underperformance. Market observers believe BTC’s earlier gains created room for profit redistribution, helping altcoins like Ethereum stage comebacks.
“ETH was seeing maximum bearishness a couple months ago,” said Quinlivan. “Now the tide is shifting.”
🌞 Summer Trading Slowdown May Hit Crypto Volume
Dr. Dawson also warned that the arrival of summer in the Northern Hemisphere could lead to lower crypto trading volume, as retail investors and traders take seasonal breaks.
“This seasonal lull raises the chances of sideways movement or even sharp pullbacks,” he said.
⚖️ Outlook: Bitcoin Cool-Off, Ethereum Play
With Bitcoin facing a historically soft Q3 and retail sentiment peaking, analysts suggest that investors could look to Ethereum and other altcoins for opportunities in the months ahead.
As always, traders should brace for volatility and watch macroeconomic developments — especially the Fed’s June 18 rate decision — for potential market-moving signals.
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