Bitcoin is entering a critical week, with price volatility driven by macroeconomic indicators, looming Fed decisions, and technical levels that could define the next major move.
📊 Weekly Close Sparks Hope — But Not Breakout
Bitcoin ($BTC) closed last week near $106,000, bouncing back from a retest of the $100,000 support level. This marks a fourth consecutive weekly higher close.
While analysts like Rekt Capital note rejection at $106,600 resistance, the bullish trend remains alive — for now.
“The goal is for Bitcoin to daily close above $106,600 to maintain bullish bias,” Rekt Capital said.
Others, including trader CryptoKing, see $107,800 as the next major barrier before a potential push to $120K, citing low volume, higher lows, and RSI cooling as bullish signals.
💧 Liquidity Levels: $100K Still Under Threat
BTC order books show liquidity clusters below $100K, increasing the risk of long liquidations if support fails. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades warned:
“Below $100K and Thursday’s low is where things can really accelerate.”
At the same time, short liquidations above $112K could fuel upward pressure. A 10% move could trigger $15 billion in short squeeze liquidations, according to Cas Abbe.
📉 CPI, PPI, and Fed Decisions in Focus
The coming week brings key economic data:
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CPI on June 11
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PPI + unemployment on June 12
Although inflation has cooled to 2.3% (CPI) and 2.1% (PCE), some analysts warn of a potential rebound later this year — possibly delaying Fed rate cuts.
“The trend of disinflation could be ending,” Mosaic Asset cautioned.
The June FOMC meeting is unlikely to bring a rate cut, with expectations pushed to September, per CME Group data.
📈 Short-Term Holders: Resistance at $106.2K
On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that short-term holders (STHs) have a break-even point around $106,200. This is a key resistance zone, as many may sell to avoid further risk.
Meanwhile, $97,500 is the cost basis for buyers from 3–6 months ago — making it a critical support level to watch.
💬 Trump–Musk Drama: Sell the Rumor, Buy the News?
A surprising factor in recent BTC price moves may be the fallout between Donald Trump and Elon Musk, two pro-crypto figures. While some fear long-term damage, sentiment data from Santiment suggests:
“The public feud may have become a ‘sell the rumor, buy the news’ event.”
When crypto personalities trend online, market reversals often follow.
Bitcoin now hovers at a psychologically and technically pivotal level. Whether it holds $100K or breaks resistance above $106K could define the next leg — toward $97.5K or $120K.
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