Bitcoin’s next major move could depend heavily on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, according to CMC Markets analyst Carlo Pruscino. A surprise rate cut could send BTC surging back toward $112,000, a key psychological level.
🏦 Fed’s Decision Holds the Key
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady at its June 18 meeting, with 97.5% of traders predicting rates will stay between 4.25% and 4.50%, per CME FedWatch Tool.
However, if the Fed cuts earlier than expected, Pruscino believes the move would create a “risk-on” environment that boosts crypto prices — especially Bitcoin.
“The upside target traders have in mind is $112,000,” he said, “but that hinges on improved risk sentiment and dovish Fed actions.”
📊 Job Market Data Could Shift Sentiment
The next major catalyst? The U.S. jobs report dropping on June 6. If the report shows strong job growth — over 250,000 new jobs, for example — it could delay any Fed rate cuts further.
Pruscino explained:
“A strong number could surprise markets and lead them to believe the Fed may delay cuts until much later this year.”
On the other hand, recent signs of weakening economic activity may pressure the Fed to act sooner.
⚠️ Trade Policy Adds More Uncertainty
While the Fed has “enough data” to decide, the unknown impact of Trump’s tariff policies is complicating forecasts.
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Trump’s recent doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has raised fears of slower global trade.
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Legal challenges to these tariffs continue to create economic uncertainty.
As a result, the Fed may stay cautious unless clearer signs emerge from both the economy and Washington.
📈 Bitcoin’s Current Standing
Bitcoin is up 6.72% over the last 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap, and briefly hit an all-time high of $111,970 on May 22. At the time of writing, it’s trading around $102,766.
Analysts suggest BTC will need a clear macroeconomic catalyst — such as a surprise rate cut — to break through the resistance at $112K and chart new highs.
With the Fed decision looming and economic data incoming, the next few weeks may be pivotal for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Stay updated on Bitcoin’s macro drivers at https://cryptodicenews.blog
