Solana’s rally hits resistance — and it’s not just the memecoins.
Solana (SOL) saw a sharp 10% price drop, rejecting the $185 mark and slipping to $167 — its lowest level in over a week. The dip comes as traders weigh two major concerns: declining memecoin momentum and a looming $600 million token unlock between June and August.
Even though Solana remains the #2 blockchain by Total Value Locked (TVL), investor sentiment is cooling, especially with Ethereum expanding its layer-2 footprint. SOL holders are asking the tough question: can it bounce back to $200 — or will it dip to $142 support?
Strong Activity, But Headwinds Mount
Despite the price dip, Solana’s fundamentals still show strength:
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$11B TVL, up 14% in a month
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DEX volume of $94.8B, surpassing Ethereum’s $64.8B
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$48.7M in fees generated, outpacing Ethereum’s $36.9M
Solana’s ecosystem continues to thrive with big gains in platforms like Raydium (+48%) and Marinade (+28%). Yet others like Jupiter and Drift have seen slower growth, hinting at a more uneven expansion.
Still, bears highlight Ethereum’s growing L2 ecosystem, which saw $59.2B in DEX volume over 30 days, showing Ethereum isn’t ceding ground without a fight.
Token Unlocks: $600M Pressure Point
A critical issue for SOL in the short term is the upcoming unlock of 3.55 million SOL tokens, worth around $600 million. Many of these tokens stem from the FTX/Alameda estate, originally purchased near $64 — well below today’s price.
That means those holders could be quick to sell, limiting SOL’s upside. This unlock, paired with Solana’s 5.2% annual supply inflation, raises red flags for investors watching supply-demand dynamics.
And while Solana’s 8% staking yield beats Ethereum’s 3%, net returns are still lower than yields offered by some DApps using stablecoin deposits.
MEV Risks and Memecoin Fizzle
Solana’s rapid block times allow for massive throughput — but they come at a cost. MEV (Maximum Extractable Value) has become a growing concern, with validators able to reorder transactions for extra profit.
That opens the door to front-running and sandwich attacks, eroding trust among traders. Paradigm’s Dan Robinson recently called MEV Solana’s “biggest problem.“
Meanwhile, Solana’s memecoin sector — a key part of its recent hype cycle — is cooling off fast:
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TRUMP: –24%
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FARTCOIN and POPCAT: –20%
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PENGU: –17%
If memecoins continue to lose momentum, it could drag down Solana’s DEX activity and sentiment along with it.
Bottom Line
Solana’s onchain metrics remain impressive, but headwinds are forming. From MEV issues to token unlocks and fading memecoin excitement, the altcoin may struggle to reclaim $200 soon.
For now, Solana isn’t collapsing — but the next few months will test the durability of its rally.
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