The XRP-spot ETF race is heating up — but approval still hangs in the balance.
Several major proposals, including the 21Shares XRP ETF, Bitwise, WisdomTree, Canary Funds, and Grayscale’s XRP Trust conversion, face intermediate deadlines next week. Yet, with the SEC recently extending its review of the Franklin XRP Fund to June 17, more delays could be coming.
The real wildcard? Judge Torres and the Ripple lawsuit.
The Ripple Case: Make-or-Break for XRP ETFs?
The SEC’s chances of pushing XRP ETF approvals may rest on one key move: whether they withdraw their appeal against the ruling on XRP programmatic sales. But here’s the twist — that withdrawal depends on whether the court grants the SEC’s settlement request to ease restrictions on XRP sales to institutional investors and reduce Ripple’s $125 million penalty.
Should Judge Torres reject the SEC’s settlement, Ripple could cross-appeal, likely forcing the SEC to escalate things. A drawn-out appeal process could further damage ETF prospects in the short term.
Despite this uncertainty, market optimism remains strong. According to Polymarket:
- 80% odds of XRP spot ETF approval in 2025
- Up from 68% on April 22
- Down from 87% in March
A favorable outcome could finally unlock a dedicated XRP ETF market, fueling long-term momentum for the altcoin.
XRP Price Outlook: Waiting on the Judge
XRP dipped 1.22% on May 14, closing at $2.5525, giving back part of Tuesday’s 1.54% gain. Coincidentally, the total crypto market cap also slid 1.22% to $3.29 trillion.
XRP is currently hovering near key support at $2.50. A breakout above the May 12 high at $2.6553 could open the door to $3.00 and potentially retest the all-time high at $3.5505.
All eyes are now on the courtroom. One ruling could send waves across the entire crypto ETF market.
🇺🇸 Bitcoin, Politics & The Fight for Regulation
While XRP’s future may depend on the courts, Bitcoin’s fate is now tightly tied to Washington.
BTC fell 0.53% on May 14 to close at $103,569, though it remained above the critical $100K support for the sixth consecutive session. But broader volatility looms.
Key driver: The GENIUS Act.
GENIUS Act – What’s at Stake?
This bill could unlock a wave of crypto-friendly legislation — including the Market Structure Bill and the Bitcoin Act. But it’s on shaky ground.
Senators are racing to push it through before the Memorial Day recess, but bipartisan support is far from guaranteed. If it fails, crypto policy could stall until 2029, regardless of who wins the next election.
“If the GENIUS Act doesn’t pass, don’t expect any meaningful reform until 2029,” said attorney John E. Deaton.
Deaton also called the stablecoin portion of the bill — dubbed the ‘Dollar Dominance Act’ — vital to reinforcing the U.S. dollar’s global status amid rising de-dollarization pressure.
The Bitcoin Act: Can BTC Become a Strategic Asset?
Senator Cynthia Lummis reintroduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing the U.S. acquire 1 million BTC over five years, with a 20-year holding requirement.
If passed, the move could:
- Squeeze BTC supply
- Drive long-term prices higher
- Reinforce BTC’s role as a U.S. strategic reserve asset
BTC hit an all-time high of $109,312 in January 2025 on these hopes. But fell below $80K in April, as momentum cooled.
BTC Price Outlook: Follow the Policy Flow
Looking forward, BTC’s next moves will depend on:
- 🧾 Outcome of the GENIUS Act
- 📉 Trade tensions and Fed policy
- 💸 ETF inflows and outflows
Bearish case: Failed legislation, hawkish Fed, trade war → BTC tests $90K.
Bullish case: Policy wins, dovish Fed, ETF boom → BTC breaks $109K ATH.
What Crypto Traders Should Watch Now:
- Judge Torres’ ruling on XRP
- SEC movements on ETF applications
- Legislative outcomes on the GENIUS Act
- BTC and XRP flow trends, volume signals
Crypto is balancing between lawbooks and ledgers. And in the coming weeks, judges and lawmakers might matter more than miners.
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